Michael D. Ward

ScholarGPS® ID: 76011009342037

Affiliation

Duke University, Durham, United States

Affiliation History

Field

Social Sciences

Discipline

Political Science

Top Specialties

Metrics Summary

Publication Count

Predicted Citations

5,538

Predicted h-index

Ranking

Publications and Citation History

Publications based on Top Specialties

Types of Publication

Publications
Books
Patents
NIH/NSF

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Taking dyads seriously (journal article) Minhas, Shahryar \| Dorff, Cassy \| Gallop, Max B. \| Foster, Margaret \| Liu, Howard \| Tellez, Juan \| Ward, Michael D. Political Science Research and Methods, volume 10, issue 4, pages 703-721 (2022). 10.1017/psrm.2021.56 Cited by (7) \| Cite \| Source
Reassessing the Role of Theory and Machine Learning in Forecasting Civil Conflict (journal article) Beger, Andreas \| Morgan, Richard K. \| Ward, Michael D. Journal of Conflict Resolution, volume 65, issue 7-8, pages 1405-1426 (2021). 10.1177/0022002720982358 Cited by (8) \| Cite \| Source
Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas (journal article) Hollenbach, Florian M. \| Bojinov, Iavor \| Minhas, Shahryar \| Metternich, Nils W. \| Ward, Michael D. \| Volfovsky, Alexander Sociological Methods & Research, volume 50, issue 3, pages 1259-1283 (2021). 10.1177/0049124118799381 Cited by (12) \| Cite \| Source
Lost in Space: Geolocation in Event Data (journal article) Lee, Sophie J. \| Liu, Howard \| Ward, Michael D. Political Science Research and Methods, volume 7, issue 04, pages 871-888 (2019). 10.1017/psrm.2018.23 Cited by (8) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Inferential Approaches for Network Analysis: AMEN for Latent Factor Models (journal article) Minhas, Shahryar \| Hoff, Peter D. \| Ward, Michael D. Political Analysis, volume 27, issue 2, pages 208-222 (2019). 10.1017/pan.2018.50 Cited by (44) \| Cite \| Source
Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies (book) Ward, Michael D. Oxford University Press (2017) 10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.303 Cite \| Source
Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion (journal article) Metternich, Nils W. \| Minhas, Shahryar \| Ward, Michael D. Journal of Conflict Resolution, volume 61, issue 6, pages 1151-1173 (2017). 10.1177/0022002715603452 Cited by (21) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Latent Networks and Spatial Networks in Politics (book) Dorff, Cassy \| Minhas, Shahryar \| Ward, Michael D. Oxford University Press (2017) 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190228217.013.11 Cite \| Source
Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes (journal article) Ward, Michael D \| Beger, Andreas Journal of Peace Research, volume 54, issue 2, pages 141-156 (2017). 10.1177/0022343316680858 Cited by (29) \| Cite \| Source
A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations (journal article) Minhas, Shahryar \| Hoff, Peter D \| Ward, Michael D Journal of Peace Research, volume 53, issue 3, pages 491-505 (2016). 10.1177/0022343316630783 Cited by (36) \| Cite \| Source
Can We Predict Politics? Toward What End?: Table 1. (journal article) Ward, Michael D Journal of Global Security Studies, volume 1, issue 1, pages 80-91 (2016). 10.1093/jogss/ogv002 Cited by (22) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models (journal article) Beger, Andreas \| Dorff, Cassy L. \| Ward, Michael D. International Journal of Forecasting, volume 32, issue 1, pages 98-111 (2016). 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.009 Cited by (22) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Every Story Has a Beginning, Middle, and an End (But Not Always in That Order): Predicting Duration Dynamics in a Unified Framework (journal article) Chiba, Daina \| Metternich, Nils W. \| Ward, Michael D. Political Science Research and Methods, volume 3, issue 3, pages 515-541 (2015). 10.1017/psrm.2014.46 Cited by (18) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types (journal article) Minhas, Shahryar \| Ulfelder, Jay \| Ward, Michael D Research & Politics, volume 2, issue 3, pages 205316801558921- (2015). 10.1177/2053168015589217 Cited by (5) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences (journal article) Montgomery, Jacob M. \| Hollenbach, Florian M. \| Ward, Michael D. International Journal of Forecasting, volume 31, issue 3, pages 930-942 (2015). 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.001 Cited by (13) \| Cite \| Source
Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change (journal article) Beger, Andreas \| Dorff, Cassy L \| Ward, Michael D Research & Politics, volume 1, issue 3, pages 205316801455751- (2014). 10.1177/2053168014557511 Cited by (19) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia (journal article) Bakke, Kristin M. \| O'Loughlin, John \| Toal, Gerard \| Ward, Michael D. International Studies Quarterly, volume 58, issue 3, pages 591-607 (2014). 10.1111/isqu.12110 Cited by (56) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction (journal article) Ward, Michael D. \| Metternich, Nils W. \| Dorff, Cassy L. \| Gallop, Max \| Hollenbach, Florian M. \| Schultz, Anna \| Weschle, Simon International Studies Review, volume 15, issue 4, pages 473-490 (2013). 10.1111/misr.12072 Cited by (57) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access
Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model (journal article) Dorff, Cassy \| Ward, Michael D. Political Science Research and Methods, volume 1, issue 2, pages 159-178 (2013). 10.1017/psrm.2013.21 Cited by (23) \| Cite \| Source
Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior (journal article) Metternich, Nils W. \| Dorff, Cassy \| Gallop, Max \| Weschle, Simon \| Ward, Michael D. American Journal of Political Science, volume 57, issue 4, pages 892-911 (2013). 10.1111/ajps.12039 Cited by (51) \| Cite \| Source \| Open Access

Title	Investigators	Year	Expiration	Amount
AOC: The Dynamics of Secessionist Regions: Eurasian Unrecognized Quasi-States after Kosovo's Independence	Toal, Gerard \| O'Loughlin, John \| Ward, Michael	10-01-2008	09-30-2014	$759,970
The Dynamics of Civil War Outcomes: Bosnia and the North Caucasus	Toal, Gerard \| Mennis, Jeremy \| O'Loughlin, John \| Gleditsch, Kristian \| Ward, Michael	10-01-2004	09-30-2008	$685,610
Globilization and Democratization: A Graduate Research Traineeship Program	O'Loughlin, John \| Ward, Michael	09-01-1995	08-31-2002	$562,500
Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of Democracy, 1815 - 1994	O'Loughlin, John \| Ward, Michael	08-15-1995	12-31-1998	$142,000
Doctoral Dissertation Research Support: Peace Dividend in Israel and Egypt	Ward, Michael	08-15-1995	08-31-1997	$4,950
Collaborative Research on the Political Economy of Military Spending in the Developing World	Ward, Michael	07-01-1989	06-30-1992	$74,361
U.S.-Swiss Joint Seminar on Dynamic Approaches to Modeling International Conflict October 31-November 3, 1984, Univers-ity of Colorado Boulder, Colorado	Ward, Michael	09-01-1984	08-31-1985	$14,311